I saw a graph on social media the other day claiming that 12 million Democrat voters "vanished" between 2020 and 2024. The trend was something like this:
In 2008 Barack Obama received ~69 million votes
In 2012 he received ~66 million votes
In 2016 Hillary Clinton received ~66 million votes
In 2020 Joe Biden received ~81 million votes
In 2024 Kamala Harris received ~69 million votes
The total vote count for the Democrat candidates has been right around 66-69 million for a while, with the 2020 election being a significant outlier.
For Republican candidates in the same time period the trend was: 2008, 60 million; 2012, 61 million; 2016, 63 million; 2020, 74 million; 2024, 73 million.
Cumulatively, it looks like there were 13 million fewer voters in 2024 than 2020; and 26 million more voters in 2020 than 2016. Between 2016 and 2024 there were 13 million more votes.
Of course there were a lot of weird things going on in 2020, but do you it's credible that 26 million voters came out of the woodwork in 2020, and then half of them didn't come back 4 years later? Also the trend lines for both Democrat and Republican votes is fairly flat, with the 81 million vote count in 2020 being a significant outlier. It looks really fishy, but you've actually been deep in the numbers about this. Do you think that seems fishy?
Thanks, that restores some of my confidence in the election. I find it very plausible that 1.2 million people voted in 2020 (because it was made to be as effortless as possible; because they were stuck at home listening to the news 24/7; because they were scared about COVID and thought that voting could change that; etc), who didn't vote this time. That's much better than a delta of 13 million.
I've been following this closely. It looks like a big nothingburger. The reason is that not all the votes are counted yet, something the media and blogosphere ought to be pointing out. Yesterday, California was only 55% counted. That means millions of Harris votes aren't in the figures we're all seeing (and millions of Trump voters too). My best source, Twitter economist and climate change expert Steve McIntyre, says that in the end, turnout will be about the same as in 2020, but with Trump ahead by a few million.
I think there was lots of fraud in 2020, but not millions of votes worth-- more like 100,000 or 500,000.
FOR REVISIONS:
Nohting yet.
Dear Dr. Rasmusen,
I saw a graph on social media the other day claiming that 12 million Democrat voters "vanished" between 2020 and 2024. The trend was something like this:
In 2008 Barack Obama received ~69 million votes
In 2012 he received ~66 million votes
In 2016 Hillary Clinton received ~66 million votes
In 2020 Joe Biden received ~81 million votes
In 2024 Kamala Harris received ~69 million votes
The total vote count for the Democrat candidates has been right around 66-69 million for a while, with the 2020 election being a significant outlier.
For Republican candidates in the same time period the trend was: 2008, 60 million; 2012, 61 million; 2016, 63 million; 2020, 74 million; 2024, 73 million.
Cumulatively, it looks like there were 13 million fewer voters in 2024 than 2020; and 26 million more voters in 2020 than 2016. Between 2016 and 2024 there were 13 million more votes.
Of course there were a lot of weird things going on in 2020, but do you it's credible that 26 million voters came out of the woodwork in 2020, and then half of them didn't come back 4 years later? Also the trend lines for both Democrat and Republican votes is fairly flat, with the 81 million vote count in 2020 being a significant outlier. It looks really fishy, but you've actually been deep in the numbers about this. Do you think that seems fishy?
Thanks,
Abram
https://x.com/ClimateAudit/status/1854988757877113199 This has the numbers, a McIntyre tweet.
Stephen McIntyre
@ClimateAudit
updated estimate based on reviewing today's counts.
Current uncounted 12.1 MM
Trump - 73.6+ 5.3= 78.9MM
Harris - 69.1 + 6.5= 75.6 MM
Other - 2.4 + 0.2 = 2.6 MM
Total - 157.2 MM vs 158.4MM(2020). An overall decrease of only 1.2MM.
You'd think that someone in US media would be doing these calculations.
3:45 PM · Nov 8, 2024
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Thanks, that restores some of my confidence in the election. I find it very plausible that 1.2 million people voted in 2020 (because it was made to be as effortless as possible; because they were stuck at home listening to the news 24/7; because they were scared about COVID and thought that voting could change that; etc), who didn't vote this time. That's much better than a delta of 13 million.
I've been following this closely. It looks like a big nothingburger. The reason is that not all the votes are counted yet, something the media and blogosphere ought to be pointing out. Yesterday, California was only 55% counted. That means millions of Harris votes aren't in the figures we're all seeing (and millions of Trump voters too). My best source, Twitter economist and climate change expert Steve McIntyre, says that in the end, turnout will be about the same as in 2020, but with Trump ahead by a few million.
I think there was lots of fraud in 2020, but not millions of votes worth-- more like 100,000 or 500,000.